On self driving cars

The process will be gradual. It's not like you'll wake up one day and there will be cars driving empty everywhere.

It will begin with advanced cruise control systems, ones that in addition of controlling the accelerator can also control the brakes... those exists already today... and then they will also be able to control steering to keep you in a lane while in the highway.

At this point the issue of liability in case of an accident is pretty much non-existent. It wold be the same as using cruise control. If you crash while using cruise control it is your fault, you are the one behind the wheel... additionally, we would have much more information on the accident given that the car was recording everything in its surroundings as well as copious amounts of data regarding the car's condition, speed, brakes and so on.

Eventually (in the next 5-10 years) we will see how many lives this advanced cruise control systems have saved and we happily will allow total control to machines. (Some estimates indicate that with just 20% of cars on the road with this system we will save 10,000 lives a year in the US alone) By the year 2025, the transition to completely self driving cars will be welcomed by all.

And those are mostly young healthy lives too. This is different than saving lives of people with cancer or Alzheimer. These are lives that will keep on ticking for many years to come.

And the amount of money saved? in the billions. Insurance companies will go out of business (not really, they'll figure out a way to keep their hands in our pockets) But the money saved to society as a whole will be huge.

Twenty years from now, by 2035, we... I hesitate to talk about 20 years from now.  Most people don't think that far and they look at me like I'm crazy when I tell them what I think the world will look like in 20 years.

But let's do this.  Let's look at 20 years in the past.  Google did not exist.  Neither did Wikipedia.  We actually had bets with friends about what was the name of the actor in such and such a movie.  And those bets would take days to get resolved.  Nowadays you take your Android phone, click on the microphone next to the search box and say "what's the name of the actor in the Ghostbusters?" and the entire cast of the movie is displayed in our phone including photos and links to clips and perhaps even a link to the actual movie.

Now take that look back and multiply it forward... 

But Wait!  

It's not linear, arguably it's not fully exponential perhaps... but it's certainly not linear.  If it was exponential we would have to look at how technology advanced in the last 200 years to get an idea of how much it will advance in the next 20.  Then your mind would be blown.  So to imagine what would happen in 20 years we need to look farther back than 20, but perhaps not as much as 200.  Maybe 50 years, maybe 40?

I may be off by a couple of years -although I think my estimate is a bit too conservative- but self driving cars will be here soon and we will be happy about it.

Every Election Feels Pivotal

Lately it feels like every election is pivotal.  If we win, we are safe one more year, if they win we are in trouble.  But that's the way both sides feel.  I know this because I live a bit of a double life.  I am a closeted liberal, as far as most of my colleagues are concerned.

In the professional circles I move, I keep my political and social views to myself.  As much as I would like to express them in full, it would probably mean a loss of my business and more importantly, it would not change anyone's mind.  As a matter of fact, by being in stealth mode, I have been able to turn a few of "them" to my way of thinking, something I could not have done otherwise

Sometimes I catch the roll of Lisa's eyes when her dad makes a sexist remark or the disgust in Mary's face when Jim calls someone a nigger or Mike slowly walking away when the conversation turns to "those Mexicans".

I then approach them and carefully open a conversation.

Feeling a bit like a spy inside the Death Star, knowing I'm on the right side of history, but also knowing that getting caught would mean hardship... we talk, some think the way I do, some are confused... confused mostly because they have been constantly bombarded by their heritage.  But we talk, I can see the hope in their faces when they realize that they are not alone, it's probably the same hope they see in my face when I talk to them... and you feel alone in the South.  You feel alone if you think differently than the rest, you feel alone if you dare to question authority, you feel alone if you feel.

No, these are not people whose minds will be changed.  Jesus could literally come down from the sky and tell them -much as he did the first time- that what they are doing is wrong and they should love one another.

-- And they would ignore him.

They would ignore him because that is not what the bible says, at least the parts they currently care to read.  They would ignore him because they have been programmed past the point of no return.  Perhaps it should make me sad, but it doesn't.  It does not make me sad because I have realized that it is a fact, and there is no point in feeling one way or another about facts.

So, with that in mind. let's get back to the elections.  Why is it that they are so pivotal?  Perhaps that is not the right question.  Perhaps the right question is "Why do we feel like it's always do-or-die?"  Yes, that is a better question. Our political system has become poisoned... it has become poisoned and it has become poisonous.  It is polarizing us and it is trying to rip us apart.  We can't find a middle ground because there isn't one.  There is Right and there is Left and you have to be one or the other to get elected.  Now, some -like me- would try to argue that the Right is too Right and that the Left is also too Right.  But that's a different point and I can talk about that some other time... of course by now I'm just talking to myself since no one wold ever read this far... if you do, just post a big "hi" on my facebook page.

It has gotten this way partly because of gerrymandering, partly because of huge influx of money into the electoral system, and the media is to blame too.  The media has perfected the delivery of their message, whatever the message is.  And the message hits home and it hits hard.

So, I've managed to state the problem.  I have no idea what the solution may be... or at least what an attainable solution would look like.  I am tempted to say that all we need to do is win the next election... but then it would be the proverbial snake biting its tail.  no?